- The Grip
- Posts
- Thurs, Dec 12th, 2019
Thurs, Dec 12th, 2019
The four-year blind spot — the shot-blocking void — Harden’s casual 55
Thursday, December 12th, 2019
Charlotte’s Devonte’ Graham is excelling despite a certain bias
Ja Morant exploded for one of the dunks of the year last night
Where have all the elite shot blockers gone?
We found a newsletter that’ll satisfy your betting needs
Tonight's must-watch games
Tap the box to set a reminder
The lead: One team’s scouting deficiency is another team’s draft come-up
The best thing in the NBA is to be young and good, or to at least be young and have the potential to be good.As a rebuilding piece, or as a trade chip, a talented one-and-done like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, in his second year, has already served as a needle-mover in the Paul George-Clippers trade and a building block for a Thunder team slowly transitioning into a rebuild.But the fetishization of young talent (remember the hype during Jayson Tatum’s rookie year?) has left a scouting blind spot: the four-year college player, who must be flawed if it took him so long to enter the NBA Draft.Two of them were on display last night:
The Hornets’ Devonte’ Graham, second-rounder in 2018 after four years at Kansas, buried the Nets with five straight points in the final minute of a win in Brooklyn. He’s averaging 20 points and 7.6 assists per game this year after a slow rookie season.
The Pacers’ Malcolm Brogdon, second-rounder in 2016 after four years at Virginia, dropped 29 in a win over the Celtics. In his first year in his big contract, he’s the best player (and a potential All-Star) on a 16-9 team.
Some others: There’s Fred VanVleet (undrafted in 2016, 18 points, seven assists this season) who played four years at Wichita State, Draymond Green (second-rounder in 2012) who played four years at Michigan State, Joe Harris (second-rounder in 2014) who played four years at Virginia, and so on. It’s what NBC Sports’ Tom Haberstroh dubbed the Diploma Bias in an article in June:
“Perhaps we’ve invested so far in the one-and-done era that there may be what I’ll call a Diploma Bias -- guys who played all four years may be undervalued in the market. These prospects are usually labeled as “low upside” players, but VanVleet just proved his ceiling as one of the best players on a Finals team.”
The same bias against VanVleet is why Devonte’ Graham can go from 34th overall pick to one of the most exciting players in the 2018 NBA Draft.[READ: Are we getting worse at the NBA Draft?]
2. Aron Baynes, Ja Morant; Ja Morant, Aron Baynes
Plain and simple, one of the best dunks we've ever seen happened last night.
4. The blocked shot is a lost art
(Data via BBRef)
It seems crazy, but people actually used to be known for their blocked shots. Dikembe Mutombo finger-wagged his way to a brand with rejections.
Mark Eaton lives on through this stand still block:
Manute Bol once averaged five per game. Hakeem could swat with the best of them.In the department of Not That Long Ago, Roy Hibbert made an All-Star career out of patrolling the paint, before the long distance police turned him into a Hibbe-saurus.The shot block, in 2019-20, though, is a lost art.QUICK: Who leads the NBA this season in blocks?You have no idea, and that’s ok. (It’s Orlando’s Jonathan Isaac, with 2.8.)The graph above shows the decline in individual blocks per game over the last two-plus decades. In 1995-96, Mutombo’s 4.5 were tops. Three others averaged three or more. In 2019-20, some guy with two first names leads the league.And it isn't some mystery as to why.It’s those damn 3-pointers. Like urban renewal in Boston in the 1950s, the spike in 3s has dragged the action from a congested lane to more wide-open pastures.The numbers:
3-pointers taken in ‘95-‘96, league average: 16 per game
3-pointers taken in ‘19-‘20, league average: 33.7 per game
In 1995, someone like Karl-Anthony Towns might have been among the league leaders in blocks. In 2019, he averages 1.3 blocks per game and 8.5 3s per game.[WATCH: Manute Bol blocks four shots in one possession]
4. Make the right bet tonight (and every night) with The Sports Scoop
Are you enjoying our newsletter but feel it isn’t quite hitting that insatiable itch for sports betting information?If so, we have good news, and a way for you to be as informed as possible. The Sports Scoop is a daily email that covers all things sports betting, from NFL to NBA to whatever the sport du jour is. It’s main purpose is to give you all the data and context you need to make a bet, all in a sleek and easy-to-digest email.For instance, tonight:
Mavs (-5.5) at Pistons (+5.5): The Mavs are playing their first game since Sunday tonight, which means Luka Dončić is going to be more ready to drop 40 than Tony, Paulie and Silvio were to whack Sal.
That extra rest is showing in the betting; early money is all over the Mavs (opened at -4, now -5.5). Detroit is 10-12-2 ATS (against the spread) this season and the Mavs are 14-9 ATS.
AKA: If you don’t get $20 cash and run to your most mischievous friend and ask him to pull up his betting app (he’ll have one) so you can hammer the Mavs -5.5, you’re leaving free money on the table.Head over to thesportsscoop.com to sign up now.
James Harden’s Wednesday night: 55 points, 20 of 34 shooting, 10 of 18 from 3, 5 of 5 from the line
5-foot-9 rookie Chris Clemons, another four-year player from Campbell, threw down an alley-oop from Harden last night.
Giannis missed last night’s game and the Bucks still pounded the Pelicans, 127-112, to win their 16th straight.
From a Reddit user: Justin, Jrue and Aaron Holiday, who all have the same parents, are 6-foot-7, 6-foot-3 and 5-foot-11, respectively.
In a tankoff last night between the Warriors and Knicks, the Knicks needed overtime to win, despite having an 18-point lead at halftime; a 20-point lead in the third quarter; and a six-point lead with one minute left. Here are the highlights, if you’re even interested.
During Kawhi’s return to Toronto last night, the Raptors digitally retraced the steps he took during his famous buzzer-beater in Game 7 against the 76ers.
This Twitter conversation, where a woman mistakes a dude's nostalgia for Kawhi as a shot at their prior relationship, is an all-timer.