Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

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Written while listening to Black Moon's Who Got Da Props

It’s Kawhi (and hopefully some others) vs. the 2015 Warriors

Believe it or not, there is an actual basketball game tomorrow. Hopefully, Magic Johnson won’t parachute onto the floor, Fan Man style, before Game 1 tips off, though absolutely nothing can be ruled out.Here are six thoughts on Raptors-Warriors -- the first non-Cleveland-Golden State Finals since 2014 -- which tips Thursday in Toronto at 9 p.m. EST on ABC. 

Will home court screw the Raptors?

The Raptors won 58 games this season to the Warriors’ 57, giving them home court in the Finals.

Is that a good thing? In a way, it puts far more pressure on Toronto; the series is effectively over if it loses its first two games. At least, with non-home court, the Raptors could rest easy knowing they only had to get one game in Oakland, and, if they didn’t, they’d still have a chance to tie it up at home.

The ‘93 Suns faced the same dilemma against the Bulls,

who tanked their chances by dropping both games at home to start the series

.

  Is this it for Durant in Golden State and Leonard in Toronto?

The two best players in this series -- Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant -- are probably going to change teams this offseason. (And one of them probably isn’t going to play in this series.)Has that ever happened in an NBA Finals matchup? Not really, sans maybe some fifth-rate matchup between, like, Rochester and Worcester in 1951. Shaq was probably going to leave after 2004 no matter what, and Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen were out after 1998, but those guys were all older. Durant and Leonard are prime, top-five players.

  This would be quite the upset...

If the Raptors win, they’ll join a short list of best underdog champs in NBA history. Some inclusions: Dallas in 2011; Detroit in 2004; and Golden State in 1975. Also, the Raptors are one of seven franchises introduced since 1989; only one of those teams, the Miami Heat, has won a title. Toronto would be the second.

  Who will ‘win’ the series?

Kawhi already has a rightful claim as winner of the entire 2019 playoffs; he resurrected his image simply by being transcendent. But conqueror of the NBA Finals is still up for grabs, and with Durant out for at least Game 1 (and likely much longer), Steph Curry has a great chance to finally win Finals MVP, which would evaporate the final (and unjust) knock on Curry’s legacy.Other contenders include Draymond Green, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and Kyle Lowry, though, y’know, c’mon.FYI: Curry is minus-143 to win Finals MVP.

  Who will be the Warriors’ fifth guy? Does it matter?

Curry, Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala are pencilled-in playmakers who carried last series’ sweep. Beyond those four, without Durant, it’s been shaky. Andrew Bogut, Damian Jones and Jordan Bell each got a start against the Trail Blazers, but played a combined 28 minutes as the fifth starter. Kevon Looney and former Raptor Alfonzo McKinnie have had good moments, and DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for Game 1.All of this could be irrelevant, though, if the Hamptons Four keeps playing like it’s 2015.

  It’s Kawhi, and who else?

Kawhi, who averaged 12.3 points per game over his first four seasons, has turned into an MJ-esque scorer. He’s dropping 31 a game this postseason on 51/39/87 shooting splits in 18 games.Behind him, there are so many players on the Raptors who are capable of having big games and big series. There are also so many players on the Raptors who are capable of having disastrous games and series. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry all have all-star level ceilings, or bust level floors.(By the way, another important role player, Fred VanVleet, is a plus-30 averaging 17.5 points per game on 12-of-19 shooting since we called him the worst player in the postseason. It must be Fred Jr.)

Five interesting prop bets heading into the NBA Finals, from our resident tragic betting figure

Pat: If you didn’t lose enough money on the NBA playoffs yet (I have), or you’ve got some winnings that are burning a whole in your pocket (I don’t), here are some entertaining options to lose money on.

1. Draymond Green is a plus-400 to win Finals MVP. (Betting $100 pays out $400)

2. A triple-double for Pascal Siakam at any point in the series has 100-1 odds. Incredible value, although he had none this season.

3. Will Drake massage Nick Nurse this series? No is a minus-400; yes is a plus-250.

4. For Game 1, Steph Curry’s over-under for 3-pointers is 4.5; Klay Thompson’s is 3.5.

5. If you think the Warriors are going to run the Raptors off the floor, Golden State is plus-500 to sweep the series. If you’re feeling completely reckless, are on drugs, or believe in miracles, the Raptors have 50-1 odds to sweep.

The Lakers’ continued free fall, summed up in three bullet points 

• ESPN’s Baxter Holmes dropped a big, illuminating piece yesterday on the Lakers’ tire fire, which mostly served as an indictment against Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka. The most viral anecdote was about Pelinka, who apparently lied about a meeting between Kobe Bryant and Heath Ledger, who was dead by the time Pelinka alleged they met. It’s all juicy and worth reading.

• After the piece dropped and shock-waved the NBA, Stephen A. Smith hosted an NBA Finals preview last night that included Michael Wilbon, Magic and Doc Rivers. Smith allowed Magic to explain his side, which some people saw as a weak cop-out that undermined ESPN’s own reporting.  

• It’s hard to see Pelinka reasonably doing a good job after reading the whole piece, which basically depicts him as an inept and insecure rookie general manager without any experience to draw from.

To think, this team used to be Minnesota nice.

From Marc Stein: The NBA may soon crown two champions

In his latest newsletter, the NYT's Marc Stein reported that NBA commissioner Adam Silver is a huge fan of European soccer. He's intrigued by the idea that teams can win up to four trophies every year and is “in the conceptual phase” of introducing a second tournament to the NBA.Here are some interesting snippets: 

Stein: Silver made it clear, furthermore, that he had yet to make a formal proposal to Michele Roberts, the National Basketball Players Association’s executive director, about ushering in either of the concepts that league officials have been discussing behind the scenes for some time. One is an in-season tournament; the other is a play-in tournament at the end of the regular season to create additional pathways to the playoffs.Silver: “Another marker for me is that we’re a few seasons away from our 75th anniversary. I think that milestone gives us a pillar around which to think about the history of the league and experiment — maybe just for the 75th anniversary — with some potential changes.”Stein: Imagine, then, an All-Star weekend that instead features the semifinals and final of a Champions League-style knockout tournament in addition to the usual 3-point shootout and dunk contest. No more Sunday game with the biggest names in the sport playing at half-speed with no discernible defense. These are all concepts that the league, according to Silver, is “studying fairly intensely.”

Read more here.

 Quick Hits

• Weirdest running stat in the NBA: This is the 36th straight NBA Finals that has included at least one of Shaq’s teammates. This year it’s Danny Green, who played with Shaq on the 2009-10 Cavaliers.

• Weirdest trending fact of 2018-19: Brook Lopez this season had more blocks than Kevin Garnett had in any season and more 3-pointers than Kobe Bryant had in any season.

• Weirdest NBA Finals promotion: Chipotle will be giving out free burritos to the first 20 people who tweet to chipotle after the word "free" is mentioned on-air from an announcer.

• The Warriors will have had nine days of rest heading into tomorrow night’s game.

• Woj is reporting that every Rocket, besides James Harden, is available in trade talks.

• Youtube channel Thinking Basketball breaks down how Toronto shut down Giannis in the conference finals.

 Concrete Reads 

• Raptors’ forward Patrick McCaw explains his mysterious departure from the Warriors [The Undefeated]

• The time the Rockets signed someone still hungover and played him 34 minutes that night [NBC Sports]

• Predicting who wins a tight, tense NBA Finals [ESPN]

• Kevin Durant’s inessential greatness [The Atlantic]

 Podcast Pick

The Kawhi trade revisited [The Ringer]