Fri, September 27th, 2019

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Written while listening to Ghostface Killah's New World

For the first time in a long time, we have no clue who's going to win the title

 This NBA decade can be vined together by three super teams: the Miami Heat, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Golden State Warriors. Since the 2010-11 season, every NBA Finals matchup has featured at least one of those three teams. And, every time it’s happened, it has surprised nobody, least of all the oddsmakers. Here was the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals in every year since 2010-11: ‘11: Miami +175 ‘12: Miami +225 ‘13: Miami +250 ‘14: Miami +200 ‘15: Cleveland +275 ‘16: Cleveland +280 ‘17: Golden State -128  ‘18: Golden State -187 ‘19 Golden State -168 (Toronto was +1850)(Quick primer: +175 = a $100 bet pays out $175. -168 = a $168 bet wins $100.)In all nine of those years, the favorite at least made the NBA Finals. In five of those years, the favorite ended up winning, and, if Kevin Durant didn’t tear his Achilles and Klay Thompson his ACL last Finals, it likely would have been six. In short: The NBA has been insanely top-heavy. It’s the one legit gripe all your annoying football-only friends can bring up about the league. In general, the same few teams are in it every year with a chance to win. That, mercifully, won’t be the case this year, because:  Kawhi Leonard left the defending champ Raptors, who won’t be very good without him Golden State will play most of the season without two of its four superstars from last year In Year No. 2 without LeBron in the Eastern Conference, a hierarchy is yet to be settledHere are the 10 best odds to win the 2019-20 NBA title, as of Sept. 22:  Lakers +300 Clippers +325 Milwaukee +550 Houston +850 Philadelphia +850 Golden State +1000 Utah +1200 Denver +1800 Brooklyn +2200 (which seems like a hedge against a Durant return) Boston +2500 (FYI: Phoenix is last, at +30000)The favorite this year will play Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo in big minutes, and just lost Kyle Kuzma indefinitely. From top to bottom, it’s the most socialistic top-10 we’ve had in a long time.In 2014-15, for example, the 10th-best odds were the post-LeBron Heat, who entered the season at +4500 to win. In 2017-18, the Raptors, who actually ended up winning 59 games, entered the season with the 10th-best title odds, at +15000. In other words, a $100 bet on the 10th-most likely team to win the title this year would pay out only $2,500. A $100 bet on the 10th-most likely team to win the title in 2017-18 would've paid out $15,000. The Celtics this year would be a viable underdog. The Raptors that year would be like betting on David Spade to win an Oscar. The best part: Sans, perhaps, Brooklyn, you can make a case that every team in this year’s top-10 has an authentic case to at least make the Finals. A 76ers-Jazz Finals? A Bucks-Nuggets Finals? Why not? That’s why this season, which starts in 26 freaking days, is going to be so much fun. [READ: A reintroduction to the title race]

If you've been zoned out the last week or so ... 

(Kevin Durant has long been listed as 6-foot-9. He’s closer to 7-feet, and a new rule will try harder to enforce that.)It’s been a weird week. Let’s get you caught up.

• Today is NBA Media Day, which is usually just a bunch of reporters pestering a team’s best players to “talk about the feeling in that locker room this year,” but Friday was notable because it was the first time Kyrie Irving was available for prodding. Here’s what Kyrie, rocking a mini-fro and a Nike headband, said about his commitment last year to the Celtics, which he reneged on, and here’s his press conference in full. 

• The league is cracking down on height-listing leniency. For years, it’s been a little wink-wink trick to make small players appear taller (See: Kemba Walker, who is way closer to 5-foot-11 than 6-foot-1), but it also went the other way, too. Bill Walton, at least 7-feet, famously insisted on being listed as 6-foot-11, because he didn’t want to be known as a “freak.” 

• There’s going to be a new rule in the G-League this summer, in which a single foul shot will be taken for a two- or three-shot foul. So, if a player gets fouled taking a 3, he’ll take just one shot. If he makes it, he’ll be rewarded three points. If he misses, zero. In the last two minutes of a game and overtime, free-throw rules will go back to normal. The basic idea is to speed up the pace of the game.

• Kyle Kuzma is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his left foot, which means the Lakers are down to two good players and a few other guys who mattered in 2012.

• And, lastly, Adam Silver is really trying to put the clamps on tampering, which was either an obvious problem or a necessary infraction this past free agency, depending on who you ask. From the Washington Post: 

Under the new guidelines, the NBA league office has the power to suspend executives, void contracts, take away draft picks and fine a team up to $10 million if it is caught violating the league’s tampering rules. The maximum fine amount was raised from $5 million under the previous framework.

We felt a responsibility to show you this picture, without context, of Larry David and Kevin Durant at a Dodgers game

 Concrete Reads 

• James Harden's next act [Bleacher Report]

• Top of the list for the WNBA? A new mental health plan. [The New York Times]

• Alex Caruso is 'not Hollywood,' but he's a star [Bleacher Report]

• Seven NBA players primed to take the leap and bring their teams with them [The Ringer]

 Podcast Pick

Lonzo Ball joins the Woj Pod [ESPN]