The Grip - FRI 5.18.18

The Rockets doubled down on iso-ball, and it worked

May 18, 2018

5.18.18

S.E.: Sports betting is legal now! At least we don’t have to pretend Pat vs. The House is done from the back room of a smoky blackjack parlor in Las Vegas anymore. Scroll to the bottom for PVTH Vol. 3.  

Written while listening to Nas's

Stillmatic

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Killing time and cliches while waiting for game three

I have read, heard, or seen more articles, podcasts, or T.V. segments about Marcus Smart over the last three days than Montana has people, which means I have read, heard, or seen the phrase “winning plays” more times than Florida has strip malls. The story goes: Marcus Smart -- his box score might not stand out -- but boy does he make a lot of those winning plays. No more. The Grip has updated its style sheet. Winning plays are out. Like the moments that spawn their use, they’ve taken a nose-dive into the ground. From now on, such plays by Smart -- or anyone else of the hustling variety -- shall be referred to only as moments with a net positive outcome that appropriately reflect the end result of a basketball game in the favor of the team that said player is on.I know what you’re thinking -- it’s not wordy at all and it’s easy to remember. Save the praise.  Anyways, that Marcus Smart -- he really has those moments with a net positive outcome that appropriately reflect the end result of a basketball game in the favor of the team that said player is on nailed down. On to far more important things. -- S.E. 

Western Conference

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 2 Golden State

Game 1: Warriors 119, Rockets 106Game 2: Rockets 127, Warriors 105 [Box Score] [Highlights]Game 3: Rockets @ Warriors, Sunday, 8 EST, TNT

It appears the basketball gods read our whiny segment on Wednesday that complained about the superficial dominance of the Golden State Warriors. Thanks, basketball gods. And props to Mike D’Antoni. After a game one win for the Warriors that zapped hope of a competitive series, where James Harden dropped 41 and the Rockets stuck to their isolation scoring offense, D’Antoni shooed questions of a possible strategy change going into game two. And, like he said they would, the Rockets completely doubled down, and in the fourth quarter, they ran the Warriors out of the gym for a season-saving win. [READ: The Rockets’ iso-ball can work against the Warriors, if it doesn’t run James Harden into the ground]As ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne pointed out in a good postgame column, the Rockets actually ran more iso-plays (46) in game two than they did in game one (45). The difference, obviously, was the outcome from those plays. In game two, isolation sets led to 12 wide open threes, of which six were made. In game one, only five were created; two were made, according to NBA.com/stats. You’re rarely going to see the ping-ping-ping-ping-shot sequences that you get with Golden State or the 2014 Spurs, but Houston’s iso-sets don’t have to mean a James Harden or Chris Paul layup or step back, exclusively. (From iso-ball, a beautiful play can grow)Sometimes, like in the play above, they start with a mean crossover by one of the two Hall of Fame guards, which leads to a sagging defense, a kick out to a three-point shooter -- sometimes another pass or two -- then a make. It’s never going to be full improvisation, but it worked well enough to get Houston back in the series. Of course, it also helps when P.J. Tucker (22 points, 5-of-6 from deep) plays like Steph Curry and Steph Curry (16 points, 1-of-8 from deep) plays like P.J. Tucker. [READ: Rockets rout Warriors in Game 2 with a small-ball death lineup of their own][READ: Steph Curry Needs to Get His Mojo Back]

Eastern Conference

No. 2 Boston vs. No. 4 Cleveland

Game 1: Celtics 108, Cavaliers 83Game 2: Celtics 107, Cavaliers 94 [Box Score] [Highlights]Game 3: Celtics @ Cavaliers, Saturday, 8:30 EST, ESPN

LeBron James is a smart man. He does not sweat the things he cannot change. He makes peace with situations that are out of his control. When the San Antonio Spurs touched the heavens against his Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals, he was not angry, upset, or bereaved. He made a calculation in his head that the other team was better than him, and he moved on. [READ: Could We Be Entering the Dawn of the Mercenary LeBron Era?]He had that look last year, in the 2017 NBA Finals. He had it in 2010, when the Celtics embarrassed him. He knew he couldn’t beat that Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett-Ray Allen-Rajon Rondo team alone, so he held an hour long decision, went elsewhere and beat that team twice in a row. The Cavs will likely reign terror on the Celtics in game three on Saturday. Good teams win at home down 0-2. Even bad teams do that sometimes. But in game four, if the feel good bench stories from game three shrink like they did in the first two games in Boston, if the bearings become too much for a 33-year-old’s posture, and if the Celtics are blowing out Cleveland, hone in on LeBron’s body language. He won’t be pleading with coaches or teammates. He won’t be crying foul. He’ll have a stoic look; dignified if not quite defiant -- just at ease. He might even be happy, because he’ll be able to leave Cleveland without blood on his hands. [READ: What if LeBron never wins another NBA title?]

More items for your NBA mind

Pat vs. The House

From the mean streets of Prospect Hill to a gentrified loft in South Boston, friend of the Grip Pat Tracy has always held one thing near and dear to his heart: His bookie. Welcome to the third segment of Pat vs. The House, a betting column every Friday where Pat will share who he’s picking -- and why -- for upcoming games. 

Western Conference Finals - Game 3 - May 20 - 8:00 PM ET Houston Rockets (+7) at Golden State Warriors (-7)  [Over/Under 226]

P.T.: The final seconds of game one provided a frightening example of how accurately Las Vegas can set their betting lines. The over/under line for this game was 225.5.  The final score was 119-106. This was the last possession.A classic stomach-churner for gamblers. Condolences to everyone that bet on the over 225.5 points. That is a tough one to swallow. Missing an over bet by a half-point will really make you want to make toast in the tub. The Warriors are better than the Rockets, everyone knows that. I would bet on the Warriors winning big at home. I would also bet on Draymond Green getting a technical foul, but my bookie does not provide that option. So, if anyone knows someone who will take my action on a Draymond technical, let me know. 

Pat’s Pick --> Warriors -7

Odds to win series: Warriors (-300) Rockets (+240)

Eastern Conference Finals - Game 3 - May 19 - 8:30 PM ET Boston Celtics (+6.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) -- [Over/Under 205.5]

P.T.: My borderline excessive dislike of LeBron James has paid off in the first two games of this series. But looking ahead to game three, I will set aside those angry thoughts and invest my greenbacks based on this thought process: The Cavaliers’ role players are bound to put in some effort at some point in the series, and their first home game is a good place to start.  If the Cavs go down 3-0, the series is all but over. Either LeBron will put in a herculean effort, or the zebras will force him to the foul line 20-plus times.  In conclusion, I am sad to say that I am not going to bet on the Celtics this weekend. The reason I am not betting against the Cavs is because I know that if I do, Kevin Love will have the game of his career, and I will spend my Sunday yelling “WHY?!” into a pillow. 

Pat’s Pick --> Cavaliers -6.5

Odds to win series: LeBron James (+175) Celtics (-225)If you have bet all of Pat’s $20 Parlays, you would now have: $38

Pat’s $20 ParlayCavaliers -6.5Warriors -7.5Rockets vs Warriors – over 226 pointsWINS $126

Courtesy of Sports Illustrated